Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Speaker Pelosi Update

The betting at tradesports says the probability that the Republicans keep control of the House is now 34 percent. However, three political scientists have looked at the data and concluded:

Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty.
Thanks to Statistical Modeling for the pointer.